Israeli air defense systems fire to intercept missiles during an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv, Israel, June 18, 2025 - Source Leo Correa
Before we begin this week's Dystopic - some fantastic news, I published my book:
How The Hell Did We Get Here? A Citizen's Guide to The New Cold War and Rebuilding of Deterrence
In just one week, thanks to many of you, my readers, the book hit Amazon’s #1 new release in National and International Security, Weapons, and Warfare, and Nuclear Weapons and Warfare, and is the top 5 new Intelligence & Espionage books.
How The Hell Did We Get Here? is available on Amazon USA HERE, Amazon Internationally (on your local Amazon page), or through Barnes & Noble and other major retailers online.
I also held a Virtual Book Launch Party on Thursday, June 26th. I wanted to thank everyone who attended. If you missed the party, a link to the video of the Virtual Book Launch Party is HERE
Now, back to our regularly scheduled dystopic …
The Run Up the 12-Day War – A Window of Opportunity Opens: Iran’s Proxies are Removed as a Threat to Israel
Over a period of 14 months starting in April 2024, Israel, aided by several outside events, stripped Iran of its air defense and the power of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and several pro-Iran factions in Syria. There can be no doubt that the removal of these threats created a window of opportunity for Israel. Here is a brief chronology of Israel’s actions leading up to the 12-Day War:
In response to the horrendous October 7, 2023, attack, Israel invaded and occupied the Gaza Strip in late 2023. By mid-2024, Israel had virtually eliminated Hamas as a threat. However, wrapping up the operation is still not complete.
In April and October 2024, in response to Iran’s massed missile and drone attacks, Israel systematically attacks and destroys the vast majority of Iran’s air defense systems. These attacks also prove how effective Israel’s layered missile defense has become. 90% of ballistic missiles in Iran’s attack are destroyed, and greater than 95% of drones, cruise missiles, and other “air-breathing” attacks. Iran was left with no effective air defense. You can read more about Israel’s October mission in my Dystopic Newsletter HERE https://paul-struhsaker.kit.com/posts/a-lesson-in-deterrence-israeli-strikes-against-iran-s-air-defense.
In October 2024, Israel invades southern Lebanon and, over a period of months, emasculates Hezbollah, destroying much of the terror group's fighting infrastructure. Prior to the invasion, Mossad, Israel's premier intelligence agency, executed the ingenious “Pager Attack” on Hezbollah leadership, resulting in 9 deaths and dozens, if not hundreds, severely wounded. Israel had removed a second member of the “Axis of Resistance,” Hezbollah.
In late 2024 and early 2025, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey, oust the dreaded Assad Regime. Russia’s and Iran’s proxies are the big losers in the Syrian Civil War. Serendipity, a member of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”
Finally, in March 2025, after years of attacking shipping in the Red Sea, President Trump orders Operation Rough Rider, a series of intensifying attacks on the Houthis. The Rough Rider campaign lasted until May 2025, when the Houthis capitulated and agreed to stop their attacks on the U.S. Navy and all commercial shipping. The last of Iran’s proxies was removed as a threat
Iran would never be weaker. Israel, never stronger. Iran’s deterrence had failed. Israel could not let this moment pass to eliminate Iran’s existential threat: Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs.
Based on intelligence that Iran was close to “Breakout” assembling a working nuclear weapon, on June 13, 2025. Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, with surprise air strikes against Iranian missile and nuclear facilities, executing a plan 20 years in the making.
The 12-Day War: A Synopsys
I’m sure all of you Dystopic readers kept up with the headlines throughout the War. There is no reason to elaborate more than the following synopsis. Israel mounted an air and intelligence offensive that included decapitation strikes against Iranian leadership and scientists, destruction of Iran’s remaining air defenses, and systematic targeting of Iranian missile and nuclear facilities. Every night, Iran would counter Israel with an ever-dwindling barrage of ballistic missiles and drones, targeting Israel’s civilians and cities (so-called countervalue targeting). Having achieved “Air Superiority,” around the clock, Israel continued pummeling missile launchers, missile facilities, nuclear facilities, and an occasional leadership decapitation strike. Israel's Arrow, combined with U.S. THAAD and U.S. Navy Aegis missile defense system, created an integrated layered defense that consistently destroyed 90% Iran’s incoming ballistic missiles.
Iran’s ever-dwindling ballistic missile counter strikes on Israel - Jewish Institute for National Security of America
After 9 days, all that remained for Israel to finish their objective was the destruction of the last three major Iranian Uranium enrichment sites, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, buried so deeply underground that only the U.S. had conventional weapons capable of destroying them – the vaunted GBU-57 MOP, Massive Ordnance Penetrator (you can read about the BGU-57 in my last Dystopic News letter HERE). After much internal debate, President Trump ordered the U.S to attack these final sites using a combination of B-2 bombers and cruise missiles from the USS Ohio cruise missile nuclear submarine, called Operation Midnight Hammer.
Operation Midnight Hammer Source: Army Recognition
President Trump publicly announced a ceasefire on June 23rd, 2025, a mere 48 hours after Midnight Hammer. This is not a formal peace, those negotiations are just starting.
Mossad the Magnificent
The depth and breadth of operating within Iran by Mossad, Israel’s premier intelligence agency, was unparalleled in the 12-Day War. Here are a few of their daring operations:
Red Wedding, named after the infamous scene in Game of Thrones. At midnight on June 13, Israel launched a first strike to neutralize Iran’s response capabilities and take out key command structures. Within minutes, 30 Iranian generals were dead—most notably Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ Aerospace Force ( read more HERE)
Operation Narnia, named after the fictional C.S. Lewis book series. On the same night as Red Wedding, Israel successfully killed nine top Iranian nuclear scientists almost simultaneously at their homes in Tehran
Drone Infiltration, in this unnamed operation, Mossad secretly smuggled drone components into Iran and established covert drone bases. The pre-positioned drones were used to strike Iranian air defense systems, creating pathways for Israeli aircraft and disabling key radar and communication networks. The drone strikes were timed to coincide with Israeli Air Force attacks on nuclear facilities and missile sites throughout Iran.
The combined psychological effect on Iran's top leadership and the damage and havoc made by these operations can not be underestimated. Hats off to Mossad! When combined with the “Page attack” prior to the 12-Day War, the operations are historic. They will be studied by the world’s Intelligence agencies for decades
The End Results of the 12-Day War
The dust has not settled, peace talks have not yet begun, and the possibility of the ceasefire failing is quite high. Yet we can still sum up the end results of the 12-Day War.
Iran's attacks on Israel:
Ballistic missile attack: 550 ballistic missiles – most of which were fired in the first 4 days of the war. 90% of the missiles were intercepted, with only 31 hits in populated areas
1,000 drones fired toward Israel – only half made it into Israeli airspace. Of those nearly 500 drones 99% were intercepted by the Israeli Air Force with fighter jets, helicopters, and ground-based air defense systems; the Israeli Navy with missile boats; and the 5114th Spectrum Battalion with electronic warfare – i.e. Directed Energy Weapons (DEW)
Military losses: No Israeli aircraft, naval vessels, or missile defense systems were either hit or destroyed by Iran – possibly the most upset victory in the annals of warfare
Leadership Losses: none
Casualties: 8 killed, over 3,000 wounded, almost all civilians, as Iran purposely targets civilians ( “counter value targeting”)
Israel and U.S attacks on Iran
Air Attack: Israel had complete air superiority on the first day of the war. Other than a surprise drone attack on the first day of the war (see above). F-15 Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon, and F-35 Lightning strike fighters made up the majority of Israel’s attacks. The IDF ( Israeli Defense Force) executed 100 or more sorties a day. An estimated 1500 sorties were flown by the IDF during the entire operation, along with over 600 refueling operations.
Cruise missile attacks: None were reported by Israel; 30 Tomahawks were fired from the USS Ohio cruise missile submarine in Operation Midnight Hammer, completing the destruction of the Isfaham nuclear facility
Heavy bomber attacks: 7 U.S. B2 stealth bombers carrying 14 GBU-57 MOP struck Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in operation Midnight Hammer. While initial satellite and air reconnaissance look promising, complete bomb damage assessment of the site's destruction is not yet complete
Iran’s Nuclear Program: For all practical purposes, the program and infrastructure are destroyed. Estimates vary, but the loss is estimated to be near or above $1 trillion
Iran’s Ballistic Missiles and Launchers: Iran started the war with 2500 ballistic missiles. 550 were fired at Israel. Israel destroyed an additional 1000, leaving Iran with fewer than 100 ballistic missiles. Just as important, two-thirds ( 250) of Iran’s roughly 400 ballistic missile launchers were destroyed. Iran’s missile production and development infrastructure was targeted by the IDF – no status on the level of that destruction has been reported – it is significant.
Leadership killed: 30 senior Iranian military commanders, including Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri; Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) chief Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami; Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters (emergency command) chief, Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, along with his replacement Maj. Gen. Ali Shadmani. Operation Narnia killed 9 seniore nuclear scientists
Civilian Casualties: 610 killed, the injured are unreported, likely in the 1000s
Military Casualties: unreported, however, given the targeting of military installations ( Counterforce targeting), 1000s likely killed and many times those wounded.
Further details can be found in the Times Israel HERE
One thing is clear in hindsight: Iran was highly compromised, likely to the highest levels, by Mossad. An internal “Witch Hunt” has already started within Iran. The Wall Street Journal reports that six men have been hastily executed. More than 1,000 people have been detained over the past two weeks for allegedly aiding Israel. ” Airstrikes have given way to executions, arrests, and paranoia” in Iran
An Uneasy Peace
Peace in the Middle East is always elusive. There is an open question as to whether the ceasefire will lead to negotiations that end in a final peace or the situation devolving back into warfare. Even if there is peace, several questions remain unanswered.
What happened to Iran's 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium?
Did any of it survive the Operation Midnight Hammer attack on Frordow?
Five Chinese Boeing 747 transport planes entered and left Iran during the war. What were they bringing in, and what were they carrying out? The 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium?
Iran still has over 1000 ballistic missiles and at least 150 launchers remaining in its arsenal. Will dismantling those weapons be part of the peace negotiation?
Perhaps the most important question of all is whether Iran will agree to give up uranium enrichment permanently?
The Cost of the 12-day War:
Israel's military expenses were estimated to average $725 million per day during a 12-day conflict in June 2025. Totalling approximately $8.7 billion for the entirte operation operating missile defense systems alone cost Israel between $10 million and $200 million per day according to TR Global . We are going to break that down in the next section
Total losses for Israel are estimated $11.5 billion to $17.8 billion, or 2.1–3.3% of its $540 billion GDP when we include infrastructure damage and work interruption either serving in IDF reserves or simpley sheltering from attacks .
As for the U.S. involvement, Operation Midnight Hammer cost the U.S. around $1 to $2 billion to deploy 125 aircraft, 14 GBU-57 bombs ($13 million each for total of ~$182 million), and 30 Tomahawk missiles (~$3 million a missile for a total of $90 million). U.S. Missile Defense costs were upwards of $2.5 billion as we explain later in this newsletter.
Israel and the U.S. are looking at $10 to $14 billion of direct war costs, destroying over $1 trillion of Iranian infrastructure. That is a shocking 100-to-1 cost differential. That is unheard of in the annals of warfare.
The Triumph and costs of Missile defense
Israel is fortunate it is a small country it's roughly the size of New Jersey. Because of this limited size it is possible to cover the entire country with a layered missile defense system. There can be no doubt that the combination of Israel and the United states missile defenses is unparalleled. The 90% kill ratio of incoming ballistic missile attacks speaks for itself.
Yet missile defense is an imperfect shield. It can never be 100% effective. Missile defense suffers from 2 basic flaws:
Saturation - Massed Drone and Missile Strikes: The use of sheer numbers of weapons in an attack to overcome a missile defense system’s ability to engage all targets and deplete the magazine/launcher capacity of the system/site.
Cost Exchange Ratio of Defensive Weapons: Missile interceptors are more technically complex and costly than attack missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. An interceptor’s cost is typically ten to one hundred times the cost of the attack weapon. Missile defense is a very expensive proposition when facing mass strikes, especially mass drone strikes.
Iran was never able to launch enough ballistic missiles simultaneously to saturate the combined U.S. and Israeli layered air defense. Israeli cities could be protected, but at a cost. Let's look at the specifics …
Ballistic missiles, unlike air-breathing weapons such as drones and cruise missiles, are exospheric. They leave and reenter the atmosphere in the mid-course of their flight, and this is where they are most vulnerable. Must be attacked by interceptors that are also exophoric with ranges greater than 1000 kilometers, not the 10s to hundreds of kilometers of the interceptors used against air breathers like Iron Dome or Patriot. That means they are extremely expensive. Here are the costs and ranges of the ballistic missile interceptors used in the 12-Day War:
IDF Arrow 3 interceptor missile is estimated to cost $4 million per unit, with a Range 1,500 miles – Israel’s primary interceptor
IDF Arrow 2 missile estimated cost $2.5 million per unit, Range 60 miles – used for terminal defense backup, should an Arrow 3 fail to hit its target
U.S. Navy SM-3 Block IIA: estimated cost $28,700,000 per missile, with a Range of 2,500 km (1,553 miles) and can intercept targets at an altitude of 1,000 km – primary interceptor (fun fact, the SM-3 Block IIAinterceptor was specifically designed for U.S. and Japan fleets to intercept North Korean ballistic missiles in their boost phase over the Seaof Japan – as it turns out it has a lot more uses!)
U.S. Navy SM-3 Block IB: estimated cost $12,510,000 per missile, with a range of approximately 700 km (about 435 miles) and an interception altitude of 500 km (about 310 miles). Secondary or primary interceptor, depending on range to the target
U.S. Army THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) estimated cost $12.9 million per unit, range of 200 kilometers (124 miles) , and an interception altitude of 150 kilometers (93 miles). Secondary or primary interceptor, depending on the range to the target
We know that Iran fired 550 ballistic missiles. Consider a scenario where 15% of the primary interceptors miss their target, and a secondary interceptor is required (~83 secondary interceptors). For this exercise, let's assume that Israel engaged 85% ( ~468) of the incoming missiles and the U.S the remaining 15% (82) and that the same ratio splits the secondary interceptions. Here is a breakdown:
Missile defense cost scenario 12-Day War
In this scenario, the total cost of missile defense interceptors is $4.567 billion – that is a big number for 12 days of warfare! Even more incredible, the U.S. Navy outspends the IDF by half a billion dollars, $2.52 billion versus the IDF’s $ 2.047 billion. The U.S. Navy, sitting in the Mediterranean, intercepted Iranian missiles at much longer ranges than the IDF, using more expensive SM-3 Block IIA long-range missiles to “range their targets.” If the Navy were able to limit targeting missiles within the range of the lower cost SM-3 Block IB us costs for primary interceptor engagements would be reduced to $ 1.068 billion, and overall costs for the U.S would be cut in half to $1.236B.
The point is, missile defense is incredibly expensive; however, the ships, cities, and people these interceptors protect have 100x or more value than the expended missile - that is the cost-benefit ratio.
While the press and the U.S. and Israeli defense departments downplayed the issue, it is likely that both the U.S. and Israel were running low on interceptors. Take, for example, the U.S. Navy. The U.S. had 5 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers (pictured below) configured with 96 Vertical Launch System (VLS) Cells, in the Mediterranean conducting anti-missile defense. Thet complement of weapons in each destroyer carries a mix of antisubmarine, anti-ship, land attack, and anti-missile weapons in their respective VLS cells. Typically, less than 25% the cells would carry the SM-3 Block IIA missiles -across five destroyers, that is a total complement of 120 missile interceptors. In this scenario, 95 of those interceptors were fired … So yes, the U.S was running out of interceptors and needed to reload … and the IDF was likely running low on Arrow 3 interceptors too. It was time for the war to end!
In this scenario, the total cost of missile defense interceptors is $4.567 billion – that is a big number for 12 days of warfare! Even more incredible, the U.S. Navy outspends the IDF by half a billion dollars, $2.52 billion versus the IDF’s $ 2.047 billion. The U.S. Navy, sitting in the Mediterranean, intercepted Iranian missiles at much longer ranges than the IDF, using more expensive SM-3 Block IIA long-range missiles to “range their targets.” If the Navy were able to limit targeting missiles within the range of the lower cost SM-3 Block IB us costs for primary interceptor engagements would be reduced to $ 1.068 billion, and overall costs for the U.S would be cut in half to $1.236B.
The point is, missile defense is incredibly expensive; however, the ships, cities, and people these interceptors protect have 100x or more value than the expended missile - that is the cost-benefit ratio.
While the press and the U.S. and Israeli defense departments downplayed the issue, it is likely that both the U.S. and Israel were running low on interceptors. Take, for example, the U.S. Navy. The U.S. had 5 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers (pictured below) configured with 96 Vertical Launch System (VLS) Cells, in the Mediterranean conducting anti-missile defense. Thet complement of weapons in each destroyer carries a mix of antisubmarine, anti-ship, land attack, and anti-missile weapons in their respective VLS cells. Typically, less than 25% the cells would carry the SM-3 Block IIA missiles -across five destroyers, that is a total complement of 120 missile interceptors. In this scenario, 95 of those interceptors were fired …
It is likely that the U.S. Navy was running out of interceptors and needed to reload, and the IDF was likely running low on Arrow 3 interceptors as well. It was time for the war to end!
Arleigh Burke-class Destroyer - VLS Configuration
It gets more complicated, A Congressional report noted that U.S. Navy ships have a limited magazine depth,(i.e. missile complement) and can only “shoot down only a certain number of enemy targets before running out of amunition —a situation (sometimes called ‘going Winchester’) that can requires a ship to withdraw from battle, spend time travelling to a safe reloading location (which can be hundreds of miles away) and then spend more time traveling back to the battle area”
Over the coming months, as the U.S. Department of Defense releases details about the future U.S. “Golden Dome” missile defense system, we’ll take an in-depth look at the proposals' pros, cons, and costs. Keep this analysis in mind … protecting America will not be cheap!
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How The Hell Did We Get Here? A Citizen's Guide to The New Cold War and Rebuilding of Deterrence
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